Selection of a Staged Seismic Intervention Strategy for Historic Masonry Buildings Based on Knowledge Confidence and Potential Consequences: A Case Study of Amiriyeh Mansion

mohsen miralaei¹ Alireza Kiani²

1) Ph.D. Student in Civil Engineering, Structural Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Bushehr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Bushehr, Iran.
2) Faculty Member, Department of Civil Engineering, Bushehr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Bushehr, Iran.

IOI Code : ABGG-ACABHB
Publication : 11th.International Conference on Researches in Science & Engineering & 8th.International Congress on Civil, Architecture and Urbanism in Asia(11icrsie.ir)
Abstract :
    Selecting an intervention type for historic masonry buildings with limited data depends not only on the severity of potential consequences but also on the level of confidence in the available knowledge. However, existing frameworks do not express this dependency as a reproducible decision rule. This paper proposes a qualitative model for selecting a staged seismic intervention strategy that links the severity of potential consequences, including safety and heritage value, and the level of knowledge confidence to four strategies: risk management and immediate investigation, targeted diagnostic investigation, design and comparison of intervention options, and monitoring and documentation. The model incorporates defined consequence and confidence levels, boundaries distinguishing permissible actions from actions outside the scope of each strategy, an independent safety gate, a prioritization rule, decision criteria, and transition conditions between strategies. The model was demonstratively applied to five vulnerability domains of Amiriyeh Mansion in Bushehr, Iran, using graded evidence from the authors’ previous research as input data. Based on the available evidence, the foundation and supporting ground, as well as the roof-to-wall connections, were assigned to the risk management and immediate investigation strategy. The load-bearing walls and roof were assigned to the targeted diagnostic investigation strategy, while historical alterations were assigned to the monitoring and documentation strategy. None of the assessed domains currently meets the requirements for proceeding to the design and comparison of intervention options. A one-level sensitivity analysis illustrates an intrinsic property of the proposed model rather than providing independent empirical evidence. The assigned grades have not yet been reviewed by independent experts. Accordingly, the model should be regarded as a proposed framework with a demonstrative application, rather than a validated decision-making tool.

Keywords : intervention strategy selection knowledge confidence potential consequences historic masonry building amiriyeh mansion