The Karkheh River Streamflow Forecast Based on the Modelling of Time Series

Karim Hamidi machekposhti¹ Hossein Sedghi² Abdolrasoul Telvari³ Hossein Babazadeh⁴

1) Department of Water Sciences and Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran, E-mail:
2) Department of Water Sciences and Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran, E-mail:
3) Department of Civil Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Ahvaz, Iran, E-mail:
4) Department of Water Sciences and Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran, E-mail:

Publication : Conference on Civil Engineering, Architecture and Urabanism of the Islamic Countries(cau2018.ir)
Abstract :
Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are appropriate for the annual streamflows (annual peak and maximum and also mean discharges) of the Karkheh River at Jelogir Majin station of Karkheh river basin in Khuzestan province in western Iran, through the Box- Jenkins time series modelling approach. In this research among the suggested models interpreted from ACF and PACF, ARIMA(4,1,1) for all annual streamflows satisfied all tests and showed the best performance. The model forecasted streamflow for ten leading years showed the ability of the model to forecast statistical properties of the streamflow in short time in future. The SAS and SPSS softwares were used to implement of the models.
Keywords : Hydrologic Time Series Box-Jenkins Approach ARIMA Model Karkheh River