An Introduction to the paradigm of futures study and an investigation on the basic scenario planning with emphasis on native development

sahar golchini¹ Zhila Sajjadi²

1) PhD Student of Geography and Urban planning, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
2) ¹ Associate Professor at Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

Publication : International Conference on Engineering & Technology - Norway (12icet.com)
Abstract :
The experience in providing the development plans, their degree of realization, and their flexibility in recent decades, has resulted in managers’ and planners’ distrust in trend analysis and prediction-based methods and techniques. Most of developed and under-developing countries seek to utilize effective methods associated with future studies in their urban development planning and one of these tools in unceratinty conditions is scenario-based planning. On this basis, the present paper is attempting to examine scenario planning while analyzing the futurist approaches by criticizing the available processes, and it is attempting to examine the native development as a structural change and to represent the important role played by institutions in the process of basic structural changes, change process, and institutional requirements of a native development while examining the various approaches of the development. The present methodology is examining the paradigm of futures study, basic scenario planning and its role in native development of a country. In the present paper, both existing and suggested processes are explained concerning the major approach, process shape, intellectual trends, ideology, efficiency, methods, and providing a basis for native development planning, and the suggested model of the native development scenarios is presented.
Keywords : paradigm ، development ، futures study ، basic scenario ، native