Prediction severity of buses-accidents by using logit model case study: suburban roads of ILAM province network

Mohamad Javad Asadi¹ Leila Nasrolahi² Ali fatahi³ Ehsan abdoli⁴

1) Department of safety, traffic and road safety office of ILAM province, Iran
2) Graduate school of South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Iran
3) Graduate master science of traffic engineering, ILAM, Iran
4) Faculty member ILAM Branch, Islamic Azad University, Iran

Publication : International Conference on Engineering & Technology - Norway (icetconf.com)
Abstract :
Today, road accidents are one the major causes of death in worldwide and this problem is more critical in developing countries. Buses and minibuses are the one important public transportation in rural roads which have high severity road crashes compared to other vehicles in suburban road network because of this of vehicles have more passengers. In one accident more human are killed or injured, therefore identification the contributories factors for severity bus/minibus accidents is so important to safety traffic engineers. In this study, the logit prediction model for severity( fatal and injury accident/ damage only accident) of bus/minibus accidents was developed to suburban road network of ILAM (the west province of IRAN) by using factors of geometric design, traffic flow(ADT), demographic data for drivers. Data bus/minibus crashes from police’s report 2009 to 2017 and character’s geometric design (includes: type of road, width of road, type of shoulder, width of shoulder, slope, radius of curvatures…) were collected ILAM’s department of road and transportation. The result show type of crashes, type of road, ADT and geometric design are contributories factors to severity bus/minibus accidents. The type of road is most important to severity of bus/minibus accidents.
Keywords : bus/minibus accident logit model ILAM province