A Comparative Study of the Forecast Accuracy of Fuzzy and Time-Series Models

salah salimian¹ Shahram Fattahi² Kiumars Shahbazi³

1) PhD Candidate of Orumieh University
2) Associate Professor of Razi University
3) Associate Professor of Orumieh University

IOI Code : XYAC-ZCAHK
Publication : 3rd.International Conference on Modern Research’s in Management,Economics & Accounting(3meaconf.com)
Abstract :
    Crude oil, as a political-economic product, plays a significant role in the world economy. Almost, all artifacts of human being are dependent on it in some processes from production to distribution from energy consumption to transportation. Proper policymaking of crude oil price based on scientific principles could provide the ground for economic growth. This paper deals with oil price forecast using fuzzy AR model. The results indicated that the accuracy of fuzzy AR method is considerably higher than ARMA method. Thus, it is recommended to use fuzzy AR method for increasing the reliability of precise forecast.

Keywords : fuzzy ar arma forecast brent oil price