From Governance to Empowerment: A Structural Analysis of Institutional Challenges and Intervention Strategies in Informal Settlements of Ahvaz Using a Futures Studies Approach

Fatemeh Gharehchamani¹ Ala Abeyat²

1) Ph.D. Candidate in Urban Planning, Islamic Azad University, Ahvaz Branch, Iran
2) Ph.D. Candidate in Urban Planning, Islamic Azad University, Ahvaz Branch, Iran

IOI Code : ABKD-ACAACA
Publication : Fourth International Conference on applied researches in civil engineering, architecture and urban planning (icarcau.com)
Abstract :
    Informal settlements in the Ahvaz metropolis have become one of the most complex and enduring urban development challenges in Iran. With an area exceeding 300 square kilometers and a population of over 400,000—covering approximately 35 percent of the city s total area—Ahvaz faces a structural and pervasive problem, not a marginal one. The present study aimed to conduct a structural analysis of institutional challenges and propose intervention strategies for informal settlements in Ahvaz using a futures studies approach, addressing the question of what the main institutional barriers to organizing these areas are and what scenarios can be envisioned for moving from governance to empowerment. The research employed a mixed-methods design with an exploratory-explanatory approach. Data were collected through a systematic literature review, a cross-impact matrix questionnaire administered to a panel of 15 to 20 experts, semi-structured interviews, and content analysis of policy documents. Data analysis was performed using MICMAC software (structural analysis), SPSS (reliability and expert consensus), and the Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) method for scenario development. The findings revealed that institutional barriers—particularly information fragmentation and lack of data transparency, conflict between local and national institutions, centralization, and weak good governance indicators (accountability, transparency, participatoryness, and justice-orientation)—are the primary bottlenecks in the organizing process, with the governance dimension, with a factor loading of 1.68, identified as the most determining factor in policymaking in this domain. Structural analysis of 16 strategies showed that empowerment ranked first and environmental upgrading ranked second; however, the realization of empowerment is contingent upon reforming governance indicators. The migration and settlement pattern is also multidimensional: 41.3 percent of residents settled for finding employment and 50.3 percent due to affordable land and housing, and the ethnic composition (67.5 percent Arab, 30.4 percent Bakhtiari) underscores the necessity of culturally aware policies. The final conclusion is that organizing these areas is, above all, a matter of governance and institutional engineering rather than a physical or financial issue, and without reforming good governance indicators, establishing an integrated information system, and designing mechanisms for genuine resident participation, no strategy—including empowerment—will achieve sustainable results.

Keywords : informal settlement urban governance empowerment futures studies dilapidated urban fabric